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Recent Press Articles

05 Dec 09 - Small business, big trouble: Over the past year the big end of town has raised $80 billion in new capital and sold assets to reduce debt. Some have failed spectacularly, such as Babcock & Brown, Allco Finance and ABC Learning. Others have fallen under the control of their lenders, among them Centro Properties Group. Small businesses, though, have struggled on the funding front. An insider at the Australian Taxation Office has told Weekend Business that small business debt levels are now "horrendous". "We're talking companies that can't meet their liabilities," he said. "A lot [of them] are trading which are technically insolvent." ........ With business bankruptcies and wind-ups already rising, the next year could be tough ....... But the ATO may already be losing patience. One inner Sydney tax agent told Weekend Business that he is seeing an increasing number of referrals to debt collectors. ''I get the impression, in the last three months, probably within a week of falling late, that they go straight into recovery. Previously we've only seen it in smaller amounts. We're seeing it in larger and larger amounts now.'' [more]

21 Sep 09 - Financial stress for families on the rise: Stable unemployment figures and wafer-thin economic growth are masking an unfolding story of mortgage stress, rental problems and homelessness as the real impact of the downturn bites. Financial counsellors say in the past 12 months their client base has shifted significantly from mostly long-term unemployed to those who, after a lifetime of employment, are out of a job and struggling to pay their mortgage or worse, feed their family. The shift has been profound. The number of clients who are employed but in financial stress has increased by 36 per cent in the past six months, while mortgage stress has risen by 60 per cent, said Sherrie Wilkins, a financial counsellor at the Far West Credit Counselling Service in Broken Hill. "Their cases are much more difficult to manage,'' she says. ''They have massive utility bills, credit card bills and other debts - I have got clients who are suicidal, clients who are depressed and on medication, who have already lost their house, or worried they will lose their house." Ms Wilkins has seen parents go without food to feed their children - telling them they are on a diet rather than admitting that even buying groceries is a struggle - and people driving in unregistered cars, too broke to afford the fee but unable to get to job interviews any other way. [more]

01 Sep 09 - Australia not out of the woods, figures show: New data has thrown doubt on the strength of Australia's rebound from the global financial crisis. Corporate profits and stockpiles slumped sharply in the June quarter, while business lending was still going backwards in July..... On a day when the Chinese sharemarket staged another spectacular plunge amid growing concerns over the strength of China's recovery, the run of favourable data in Australia hit a hurdle, or several of them,...... Financial markets have now priced in three rate rises in the next six months, the first in November........ The Bureau of Statistics yesterday reported that corporate profits slumped 7.8 per cent in the June quarter after seasonal adjustment. It was their third consecutive quarterly fall, and the steepest yet. [more]

01 Aug 09 - Optimism not a great foundation on which to build a recovery: Maybe the weather is to blame. A week of balmy winter days, the city fanned by a light westerly that has cleansed the air, sharpened the images and deepened the hues of an already impossibly blue sky. Everyone seems to be just overcome with optimism....... It all raises the question; are we really so lucky that we will just glide through this entire event relatively unscathed? It looks like it. But before we get too smug, it’s worth noting that optimism on its own isn’t a great foundation on which to build a recovery. It certainly helps. But it is not enough in isolation. It is worth bearing in mind that elsewhere in the world, we have still to see the worst of the recession. The bulls have taken hold simply because the pace of economic decline has slowed. And it has slowed primarily because of co-ordinated government stimulus packages and loose monetary policy, not because of improved demand..... Still, why worry? The sun is out, there’s a light offshore wind, and everything feels just fine with the world. [more]

20 Jul 09 - Jobs catalyst of a domino effect: Once rising unemployment sets in, governments will face a policy dilemma that will determine the prospects for recovery ..... A sharp contraction in jobs and labour income has negative consequences on both the economy and financial markets. First, falling labour income implies falling consumption for households, which have already been hit hard by a massive loss of wealth ..... Second, job losses will leas to a protracted and severe housing recession.... Third, if an unemployment rate of 10 per cent to 11 per cent is put into any model of loan defaults, the result is ugly figures not just for residential mortgages.... but also for commercial real estate, credit cards, student loans, car loans and so on.... Fourth, rising job losses leads to greater demands for protectionist measures. This threatens to aggravate the contraction in global trade. Fifth, the higher the unemployment rate rises, the wider budget deficits will become... [more]

20 Jun 09 - Worse to come for Australian economy: Australia's sharemarket will halve in value, house prices will slump as much as 40 per cent and unemployment will climb to 10 per cent. That's the bold prediction from economic forecaster Harry Dent, who says a bigger crash is ahead for the global economy within the next two years. And while Australia's strong financial system, links to China and young working population have cushioned the nation from the economic turmoil so far, Mr Dent says smart investors are cashing up in preparation for "the Mother of all depressions". [more]

09 Jun 09 - More disappointment for small business: The small business lobby faces disappointment over its call on the federal government for greater assistance in obtaining finance, with Small Business Minister Craig Emerson saying yesterday the government has already done what it can..... Opposition small business spokesman Steven Ciobo said up to 90 per cent of small businesses were suffering from cash-flow stress, which government policies had failed to alleviate. "It's a shame that the government's so focussed on window dressing," he said...[more]  

09 Jun 09 - Worsening labour market on the cards: Labour market data to be released this week is expected to show the economy shed 20,000 jobs in May, as the jobless rate creeps upwards and the number of jobs advertised continues to decline. ... [more]

25 May 09 - Size of first-home buyers' loans inflating: THE average loan size for first-home buyers has risen by $52,000 - or 23 per cent - in the past two years, raising fears that the much-publicised government incentives for young buyers are artificially inflating the market. A report commissioned by Brandmanagement, a market research firm specialising in the finance sector, says the average size of loans being taken up by young home buyers is jumping by an "unsustainable" amount, The Australian reports..... the statistics - which indicate that property prices are rising in line with loan sizes - have raised questions about whether the government incentives were simply being used by consumers to buy into a bubble...[more]

18 May 09 - Savings slump brings crisis closer to home: Almost 30 per cent of NSW residents have no savings, according to a new study that shows many have been caught unprepared for the recession and rising unemployment...."The report is a sobering snapshot of how the unprecedented downturn of the past six months has hit home," said the chief executive of Bankwest retail, Ian Corfield. "Millions of NSW residents are failing to put sufficient money aside to cover life's setbacks." He said nearly 60 per cent of those from NSW who took part in the six-month online study of 1144 people had not adjusted their finances in response to the recession, 29 per cent admitted they had no savings and 40 per cent saved none of their pay.... The Government forecast that unemployment rate would rise from 5.4 per cent to 8.5 per cent by June 2010, but the report found 56 per cent of people would struggle financially if they were made redundant. "Not only would most people be in dire trouble if they lost their jobs, but our report found that half of Australians would struggle with simple things like a rise in household bills or major repairs to their car," Mr Corfield said. Twenty per cent said they could not afford an expensive operation, 26 per cent could not pay for major house repairs not covered by insurance, 12 per cent could not meet a sudden increase in household bills or be able to replace a household appliance, and 13 per cent could not pay for major car repairs. In most cases a further one-third said they could just manage to meet those costs, but it would be a struggle. [more]

18 May 09 - European vacation: The collapse in European GDP revealed late Friday evening was astonishing. For the Eurozone as a whole, GDP shrank 2.5 per cent in March quarter, compared to the December quarter (not an annual rate, as the United States reports). German GDP fell 3.8 per cent, which is equivalent to an annual rate of -15.2 per cent (US GDP fell at annual rate of 6.1 per cent in that quarter). Germany, in other words, is in a depression. Slovakia and Latvia – small, open economies that rely on manufactured exports – fell a staggering 11.2 per cent in the March quarter, an annual rate of -33 per cent. For Australia, the unfolding disaster in Europe offsets the signs of a government-sponsored recovery in China. According to Austrade, Australian exports to Europe total $27.3 billion and to China, $26.9 billion... [more]

07 May 09 - City dwellers sinking deeper into debt: Even before the recession threw tens of thousands of people out of work, Sydneysiders were struggling to cope financially, failing to save or budget, and unable to pay their bills on time. A survey by the Wesley Mission, conducted in December, shows Sydney residents were financially worse off than they were when surveyed two years earlier. Almost one in three Sydneysiders said it would be difficult or impossible to cope with a $160 increase in their monthly expenses compared with 14 per cent in August 2006. There was also a near doubling in the numbers who would find it difficult or impossible to raise $2000 on short notice, rising to 30 per cent of Sydney residents. And 23 per cent could not pay their electricity, gas or telephone bills on time compared with 13 per cent in 2006. "More families are doing it tough and struggling to make ends meet," said the Reverend Keith Garner, superintendent of the Wesley Mission. "And they don't have the wherewithal to handle a crisis." The report, Financial Stress: The Hidden Cost, to be released today, calls for a national financial literacy campaign to complement the Federal Government's planned changes in the finance and lending sectors. [The Survey] shows almost half had no savings and one in eight were on the verge of insolvency by spending more than they earned. Many would find it hard to cope with an emergency, such as an unexpected medical bill, the report said. An alarming 20 per cent of credit card holders could never pay off their balance in a 12-month period, yet more than half the residents surveyed had neglected to draw up a budget in the previous year. ....... As the economy deteriorated, Wesley Mission recorded a marked increase in calls from people suffering financial pressures, bankruptcies and lack of affordable accommodation, the report says. [more]

28 Apr 09 - Close to a million Aussies will be unemployed at peak of recession ...: Close to a million Australians face unemployment as the nation's economy plunges into recession, a leading economic forecaster warns...... In a brutal assessment to be issued today, Access dramatically upgrades its prediction of when -- and how high - the jobless rate will peak. The estimate three months ago was 7.5 per cent in the middle of next year. "Sadly, we have now revised that up to around 8.5 per cent by the closing months of 2010 - close to a million unemployed," Access says. Its quarterly business outlook paints a dark picture. "Rather than a recovery year, 2010 looks increasingly like a continuation of the bad news of 2009," it says. [more]

31 Mar 09 - Worse yet to come for small business, say firms: Almost two-thirds of small business owners expect the economy to slide into recession in the next 12 months, the latest survey by software company MYOB shows. Of the 1503 small business owners surveyed by MYOB last month, 63 per cent expected the Federal Government to announce that Australia was in recession within the year, The Australian reports. Business owners with annual sales of more than $1 million were more pessimistic about the economy than those with a turnover of less than $1 million. "Australia's small business owners, who are usually highly optimistic, are losing confidence in the economy, and this has impacted their confidence in the Federal Government, with 45 per cent believing that the Government has not adequately considered the impact of the financial crisis on small business,'' MYOB's chief executive Tim Reed said. [more]

31 Mar 09 - One in four workers to go on welfare: There could be one person of working age on welfare for every three people with a job by the time a recession ends, according to one of Australia's leading economists, Bob Gregory. The welfare blowout, with more than a million more people likely to be relying on benefits, will far exceed the threat posed by an increasing aged population and has so far been overlooked by Federal Government and Treasury, The Australian reports. Professor Gregory has modelled the changes in the welfare population following the 1990-92 recession, and says the rise in unemployment is likely to be followed by increases in the number of people on disability, carer and sole-parent pensions. [more]

19 Mar 09 - No sign of a quick rebound: Any hopes of a quick rebound in the economy have dimmed with the release of an array of numbers indicating household finances are being squeezed from all sides. The Federal Government's combined $52 billion in stimulus spending is yet to spark a recovery in key sectors such as housing starts and vehicle sales, two of the biggest ticket items for consumers. Housing starts for the December quarter collapsed 9.9%, the lowest since September 2000 - when the GST was introduced - with the size of the contraction surprising analysts. ''There's been more evidence the Australian economy is turning for the worse,'' said JP Morgan economist Helen Kevans. Forward-looking figures indicate more gloom ahead for the housing sector, as well. The Westpac - ACCI Survey of Industrial Trends index dropped to 34 points, from 40.4 points, the lowest activity level since the 1990 recession.....  That gauge indicates the jobless rate has much further to climb than the 5.2% level recorded in February, as companies continue to scale back growth plans. Ms Kevans expects unemployment to rise to ''at least'' 9% by the end of 2010........  An RBA official acknowledged the tough times ahead in the economy. [more]

14 Mar 09 - The real pain of recession is starting to hit home: What's the difference between a recession and a depression? Most economists will give you a considered response about the number of months over which an economy shrinks. But here's the real answer. A recession is when a friend or family member loses their job. A depression is when you get the sack. While most of the debate in recent times has concentrated on frozen credit markets, executive mega-salaries, bank nationalisations and the impact on shareholders, the real cost of recession is measured in unemployment queues and the toll that exerts on individuals and families. [more]

11 Mar 09 - Boomers face stark choices in bleak economy: Prolonged economic collapse leaves little time to reinvent, recover, rebuild. It wasn’t supposed to happen this way. The Me Generation’s twilight years were supposed to be a bookend for the Golden Age of the American Dream they inherited after the country triumphed in World War II. For all but a few, that dream is fast slipping away, as a surge in layoffs and the collapse of the housing and financial markets leave them with few options and little time to recover and rebuild. “I don’t think there’s any way around it: The baby boomers are going to be in bad shape,” said Dean Baker, an economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research. “The only way that they're going to be able to come out OK is if they can work later in their lives. Even then it’s going to be tough because very often it’s going to be at considerably lower wages.” The statistics are bleak. The housing market collapse has wiped out some $3 trillion in home equity that once formed the bulk of most boomers' life savings. The incineration of another $11 trillion in stock market wealth has cut a wide swath through the individually managed accounts that have largely replaced the employer-managed pensions that supported their parents’ generation in retirement..... Many are now burning through what remains of their savings and raiding retirement accounts to pay college tuition or to meet basic household expenses..... Millions of younger, still-employed boomers, who thought their retirement plans were on track, also may have to abandon the idea of ever retiring...... [more]

07 Mar 09 - Plenty to prove we are in a recession: Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan may still be refusing to utter the word, but on every reasonable reading of the figures the economy is already in recession. According to this week's national accounts, gross domestic product - the nation's total production of goods and services - fell by 0.5 per cent during the three months to December... The Government is waiting to see if we get a second, consecutive quarter of contraction before it will use the R-word, but there's no reason the rest of us should hang back. Why not? Because there's too much other evidence saying the economy's getting smaller and unemployment is worsening rapidly.... The economy's been so weak for so long that it grew by a mere 0.3 per cent over the whole year to June. That says the contraction in the June quarter was no anomaly. If, as is commonly done, we abstract from the weather-driven volatility of agriculture and look at the non-farm economy - which is 97 per cent of the total - we find it contracted by 0.2 per cent in the September quarter and by 0.8 per cent last quarter. If, as we probably should, we adjust for population growth and look at GDP per person, we find it's fallen for three quarters in a row, by 0.2 per cent, 0.3 per cent and 1 per cent. Then there's unemployment - which, after all, is the main reason recessions are feared. The rate of unemployment rose by 0.7 percentage points to 4.8 per cent over the year to January. Since August, full-time employment has fallen by 47,000 or 0.6 per cent. According to the Government's own forecasts - which are likely to be too optimistic - the unemployment rate will rise by a further 0.7 percentage points by just June, and by another 1.5 percentage points in the following year. That's a recession in anyone's language.....  But, really, the main thing to note is just how widespread the production declines were. To a greater or lesser extent, most sectors went backwards. Sorry to rub it in, but that's further evidence we're already in recession. [more]

05 Mar 09 -It will get a lot worse, says ALP: Efforts to keep the economy out of recession appear increasingly futile as new figures confirm Australia has been unable to resist the downward pull of global economic forces. The Government said yesterday the contracting economy for the December quarter would have been worse without the $10.4 billion stimulus package before Christmas. Economists said the country was most likely already in recession, The Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, said Australia was caught in an "unfolding global economic cyclone" in which 17 of the world's advanced economies had experienced at least two quarters of negative growth and another 27 had at least one quarter of decline. "Australia cannot swim against the global economic tide," he said. "Australia can reduce the impact … of the global economic tide but we cannot stop it altogether." [more]

 26 Feb 09 - Paying the price for having it good... and for so long: How bad will the downturn in the economy get? Will recession be averted or will things be so bad for so long that people start wondering if we are in a depression? The honest answer is that no one - not politicians, economists or business people - can say with any confidence. It's the future and it's unknowable..... The Reserve Bank's forecast is for the economy to be at its weakest in the first half of this year, but then begin recovering in the second half. If this comes to pass the unemployment rate may not go much higher than 7 per cent - about 800,000 souls. If that sounds bad, it is..... We had it so good for so long that maybe now we'll pay a high price. [more]

26 Feb 09 - Brace for more bad news: The Government has warned the nation to steel itself for more large-scale job losses as it cited yesterday's lay-offs of almost 2000 people as sobering evidence the global financial crisis had hit home..... The mini-budget this month warned that despite the billions spent on economic stimulus measures, there would still be an extra 300,000 unemployed by June 2010. "This is what 300,000 jobs begins to look like. This is bringing it back home," Senator Carr told the Herald. Echoing his sentiments, the Employment Minister, Julia Gillard, said: "There will be more days like this." [more]

12 Feb 09 - Business conditions hit recession levels: Business conditions are the worst they have been since the start of the early 1990s recession and the commercial sector expects the trading environment to deteriorate by March, a key report says. National Australia Bank's December quarter survey also showed business confidence had dropped to a record low. NAB economists expect the economy to contract in 2009 even with the Federal Government's $42 billion stimulus package. The prospect of higher unemployment is expected to force the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to slash interest rates to an all-time low. Business conditions have now worsened for four consecutive quarters, since declining from a peak in the December quarter of 2007, NAB said. "This represents the largest annual fall in business conditions since entering the 1990/91 recession," the report said. [more]

04 Feb 09 - The Paradox of Stimulus: Yesterday the Prime Minister said something like: “The world economy is totally buggered, but here’s a few bucks for some of you and we’re going to pay for a whole lot of schoolrooms to give a few of you something to do.”  Well, OK, what he said in his address to the nation was: “We now face a global economic recession – with a massive impact on jobs right across the world.” And then: “The policy of this government is to act and to act decisively.”  Note that, having watched the government act and act decisively in the morning, the Reserve Bank still went ahead with the 1 per cent rate cut that it was planning for the afternoon. That’s because yesterday’s fiscal stimulus package was a political announcement not an economic one – it will make almost no difference to the economy….. Banks are not lending, businesses are not investing and consumers are not spending, and government simply cannot replace them. [more]

02 Feb 09 - Bankers resigned to a very hard year: The chastened experts who manage the world economy have written off this year as a disaster they can do little about. "Everybody knows that 2009 is going to be a very tough year." ......Westpac's Gail Kelly, the Commonwealth's Ralph Norris and Goldman Sachs's Craig Drummond ....... braced for a very rough ride over the rest of the year. "I think 2009 is going to be difficult," says Norris. "The danger is that businesses will very quickly throw people out on the street.".... The bad news for Australia is the unexpected rise of so-called financial protectionism. As banks become part or fully nationalised in the US and Europe, they are pulling the capital out of foreign markets and back to home base. Australia is exposed because the nation has to import capital and its otherwise solid banks have to tap foreign capital markets because of the nation's low savings rate. Norris says business needs to look at how to "share the pain" around its workforce by wage restraint and flexible working hours rather than sackings. Kelly says 2009 should encourage "back to basics" banking and recognition that many customers "are going to be wearing some pain"... [more]

31 Jan 09 - Drop the anchor and furl the sails, we're going over the edge: .... A torrent of profit warnings this week showed few companies, if any, are safe from the market turmoil. And now it's Australia's more sturdy blue chips who are issuing dire warnings which echo the global mayhem we were meant to be immune from..... Frank Lowy's property empire, Westfield, revealed a $3 billion write-down while Boral shocked the market this week by slashing its profit guidance, set only two months ago, by 40 per cent.... Few doubt there will be more negative surprises in the weeks ahead - the only question is how drastic the impact of a deteriorating world economy will be..... the Australian economy is heading into a major slump, and most analysts are only starting to factor in the impact from the Chinese economic slowdown, lack of consumer confidence, and tight credit conditions.... The idea that we were a prudent, sensible country that never indulged in the reckless excesses that the rest of the world did - that is complete crap..... We partied as hard, if not harder..... our addiction to debt makes us just as vulnerable as the rest of the world to the melt-down in capital markets, and recent profit warnings are only the early stages in the downturn. Tumbling commodity prices will only make the trough deeper,.... This week Microsoft's founder, Bill Gates, said it would be up to 10 years before the economic woes had passed, while the International Monetary Fund warned it would be the worse year for global growth since World War II.... Households and smaller business customers, as well as corporations, are all tied into global credit markets. "It's an issue for every business and indeed every household out there ... [more]

29 Jan 09 - World trade collapsing - International Monetary Fund: World trade collapsed by nearly 45 per cent in annual terms in the final three months of last year, according to new International Monetary Fund figures that expose the staggering depth of the global financial crisis. And the IMF has predicted dealing with the economic storm will force governments to drive their budgets deep into deficit, indicating that Australia could expect a $35 billion deterioration in its budget bottom line, The Australian reports. The bleak assessment, released early this morning, declares the global economy is in the grip of a "pernicious feedback loop" triggered by the collapse of credit and stock markets.... [more]

20 Jan 09 - Business borrowing dries up: Business borrowing has fallen to its lowest level in three years as banks tighten lending standards, raising fears of a sharp slump in private investment this quarter. Commercial finance commitments, which include loans for business and property investment, fell 10.4 per cent for November, from $31.7 billion to $28.4 billion, figures show. The gauge of lending has now fallen more than a third from the $50.4 billion high of last January, and total lending in the economy has fallen 30.7 per cent in the past year. The slump is an indication of less demand for credit and tighter lending standards from the banks, which are trying to shield themselves from bad loans and asset write-downs in the downturn. To make up the shortfall companies are becoming increasingly reliant on the business equivalent of a credit card. The proportion of funds drawn down from pre-approved lines of credit rose to a 12-year high of 62.7 per cent, the Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show. The lower levels of credit could prompt businesses to slash planned capital spending, which would weigh on the already tenuous labour market and limit jobs growth. [more]

20 Jan 09 - Let the bad times roll: the recession they can't wait to have: It was a night of largesse in the liquidation industry: the Insolvency Practitioners Association of Australia's state conference, held in the largest room of the largest party venue in Sydney. Almost 300 liquidators sat under the six chandeliers hanging over the zebra-print carpet of the Ivy Room on George Street. As the champagne flowed, they could not help but smile: business was good - and expected to get better ……. Figures for the appointment of external administrators were at a year-long high of 867 last September, when the insolvency practitioners held their dinner. There were 847 more in October and 1011 in November - up by more than a third since 2007 …… At Henry Davis York, one of the largest practices dealing with insolvency law in Sydney, business is up more than 10 per cent. It has been growing steadily for the past nine months….. [more]

19 Jan 09 - Budget 'buggered', recession looms in Australia, Access Economics warns: Australia will go into recession this year with a budget that's "buggered", forcing Canberra to choose between its infrastructure priorities and more populist middle-class welfare and industry bailouts. Leading economic forecaster Access Economics warns in its quarterly Business Outlook, released today, that the nation's economic boom will "unwind scarily fast", halving corporate profits, costing more than 300,000 people their jobs and blowing out the current account deficit to more than $100 billion, The Australian reports. "Batten the hatches. This is not just a recession. This is the sharpest deceleration Australia's economy has ever seen," the report says. [more]

14 Jan 09 - World economy falls deeper into recession: The world economy has taken a sharp turn for the worse, with early estimates showing global output fell more than 4 per cent in the last three months of last year, with further decline expected over the next six months. The OECD warned yesterday of a "deep slowdown" in all major industrial economies and most of the emerging economies, including China, The Australian reports. [more]

12 Jan 09 - Job ads at recession level: The number of jobs advertised dropped by nearly a third last year, putting the number of new positions added by businesses at "recession levels.'' The ANZ job advertisement survey showed that for the year to December the total number of job ads fell 30%. For the month, they slumped 9.7%, the lowest since 1999..... [more]

Click here for Press from 2008